"Al Nusra front": the coming Jordanian challenge
If
the political situation in Syria remains unresolved, the possibility of the
conflict spilling out across the region increases. The biggest risk would be
the Al Nusra front model with the targets being Syria’s neighboring
countries. The risk is not just terrorist-style attacks on civilians, but also
preparing the atmosphere for civil sectarian conflict based on religious and
ethnicity in the whole region, due to the mutual religious and geographical heritage
that most of the people in the region share.
Jordan specifically should be wary of this new
organization, as many of its members are originally Jordanians, who contributed
to its activities in Syria, physically and morally. One of the things that makes
Al Nusra a serious threat is that it doesn't represent just Al Qaeda, but also many
radical Islamist groups would share the same new doctrine.
However, outbreaks of conflict in the region may become inevitable with the nurturing of a culture of hatred and rejection of others. It may in turn spread to other countries in the region, from Iraq to Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt.
What is surprising is that regardless of the
differences, many western diplomats and politicians, are comparing what is
going through the region now to Yugoslavia, which required division into states
at the end of the conflict, based on ethnicity and religion.
Among this evolving regional situation, the situation
in Jordan is becoming more challenging. The Jordanian policy positions
attempting to please everyone adopted since the first day of the crisis in
Syria, makes Jordan appear as a real obstacle to countries in the region
involved in feeding the conflict in Syria. Therefore, the internal challenges for
Jordan have grown, on both the political and security levels.
Jordan should be able to contain the large political pressures;
this should happen by maintaining the harmony within the Jordanian domestic
arena. Many recent reports are highlighting the intelligence activities
conducted by the Israeli Mossad in some Arab capitals, including Amman, to maintain
the conflict in Syria. So, the biggest danger at this stage is the scenario of armed
confrontation, which may occur due to the failure of a peaceful revolution (like
Tunisia and Egypt) so a political transition with bloodshed becomes more
probable (like Libya and Syria).
Jordan should keep an eye on the eastern front. Iraq is
also facing the challenge of saving its western governorate of Al Anbar from
falling into a sectarian (Sunni-Shia) conflict with the potential for the
separation of the Sunni district into an independent state. The success of such
a separation would potentially lead to many more similar attempts throughout
the region.
Therefore, Jordan should use all its historic power in
that part of Iraq to achieve two major points: first, to save the unity of the
Iraqi partner, as this scenario might have a disastrous future impact on Jordan.
Secondly, to start a strategic alliance with Iraq that could serve the
Jordanian political and economic interests.
Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
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